We just closed on quite the week in College Basketball! Top teams stumbled, others thrived, and some unranked squads got bigtime wins! There was a major brawl in a Big East battle and one former PAC-12 team got their second B1G win of the year. Congrats Oregon, you now aren’t last in your league. Be sure to check out the second half of this week’s newsletter for a special section as well! Lets dive in!

Next week, we’re going to start this section with a new #1 ranked team. Why? Because (1) Arizona took two straight losses, first at (9) Kansas (82–78), then at home in overtime to (16) Texas Tech - a stunning week for a team that started 23-0! To make matters worse, the Wildcats also lost freshman star Koa Peat to a lower-leg injury in the Texas Tech game (he exited the game in the first half), leaving his status unclear moving forward. (2) Michigan certainly looked the part of the new top team, beating Northwestern and then steamrolling UCLA (86–56). We expect the Wolverines to top the polls today, though (3) Houston feels just as dangerous lately!  They rolled this week with easy wins over Utah and Kansas State. (4) Duke handled Pittsburgh and then methodically picked apart (20) Clemson to bounce back from last week’s rivalry loss at (11) North Carolina. (5) Iowa State continued its rollercoaster Big 12 play; first losing at TCU (which really helped the Horned Frogs bubble chances) before hammering (9) Kansas.

Wisconsin should be ranked soon - they went on the road and took down (8) Illinois in OT, then protected home court vs (10) Michigan State in blowout fashion! The Badgers are the only team in the country with three top-10 wins!

North Carolina went 1–1, losing to Miami (FL) before taking out their frustration on Pittsburgh (the poor Panthers had to face angry Duke/UNC teams back to back!). More importantly: freshman star Caleb Wilson suffered a fractured left hand during the game and is now sidelined indefinitely, a massive blow to UNC’s ceiling down the stretch! (12) Gonzaga had a strong week, routing Washington State before adding a statement win over Santa Clara to seize sole possession of first place in the WCC standings! (13) Purdue also had an excellent couple of games, beating (7) Nebraska in overtime (after blowing a 20+ point lead!) and then taking care of Iowa. They should move up this week.

A few more notables - (14) Florida and (15) Virginia stayed steady with 2-0 weeks. Same for (17) St John’s who has now won 11 in a row!

(20) Clemson is probably going to find itself unranked on Monday… the Tigers dropped games to Virginia Tech and Duke. (22) BYU had a MUCH needed clean slate - beating Baylor when defense was optional (99–94) and then surviving a close call with Colorado (90–86 OT). Oh, and (23) Miami (OH) stayed unbeaten! They’re 25-0!!

As noted above, Santa Clara could not get it done against (12) Gonzaga and now sits a half-game back in WCC standings. Saint Mary’s is hot on their trail just half a game behind the Broncos. Utah State dismantled Memphis after beating Fresno State earlier in the week to stay atop the Mountain West. Memphis’ coach Penny Hardaway didn’t like the Aggies’ style. We thought it was great though. San Diego State kept pace after beating Air Force and Nevada. The Wolfpack now fall a game behind New Mexico for second place in the MW.

VCU went 2-0 this week after taking down La Salle and rival Richmond to stay in touch in the A-10 race. A big one looms in this conference on Friday (more on this later). South Florida got two road victories over Wichita State and Florida Atlantic to stay two games clear in the American. Belmont lost their first game of the week in OT against Bradley before winning their next two against Northern Iowa and Murray State. Against the Racers, Belmont was down by 19 with 18:19 left before closing on a 61-35 run to win the game. They scored 61 points in 18 minutes of gameplay!!

Yale got a pair of road wins over Dartmouth and Harvard to remain in 1st place in the Ivy League. Akron dropped a non-conference game to Troy before beating UMass and is still only one game back of Miami (OH) in the MAC. Stephen F. Austin got two more wins and remains in 1st in the Southland Conference. High Point and Winthrop kept rolling and are a combined 23-2 in Big South play. The third place team in this league is Radford with a 7-5 conference record. Liberty just needs to win one more game to officially become the CUSA regular season champions as well.

Northern Colorado beat Portland State to hand the Vikings just their second Big Sky loss this year. Long Island University lost at New Haven which snapped their six game win streak. East Tennessee State lost at home to Samford as well. The Buccaneers still have a two game lead in the SoCon, however. Even though Bethune-Cookman lost over the weekend to Alcorn State, the Wildcats are 10-2 in SWAC play and are having their best season in a long time!

Other Storylines: 

Here is what we will be watching this coming week! Reply to this email and let us know what you will be tuning into!

Both these squads are chasing a top two seed in the NCAA Tournament as well as a Big 12 regular season title. With Arizona stumbling, Houston is in pole position with Iowa State just two games back. A win at home here would pull the Cyclones within one game of the Cougars. It won’t be easy by any means though. Houston has lost only once since Thanksgiving and that was at Texas Tech.

Honorable Mentions:

Morgan State @ NC Central - Winner of this game will move into 1st in the MEAC

South Alabama @ Marshall - The Jags have a one-game lead over Marshall (and others) in the Sun Belt

Both TCU and UCF are 6-6 in Big 12 play, and both find themselves squarely on the bubble as of now. The loser of this game isn’t necessarily “out” of the NCAAT picture (especially with the chance at a deep Big 12 tourney run to notch a few impressive wins). The winner is going to feel much more comfortable about their chances!

Honorable Mentions:  

Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin - OVC standings implications!

Virginia Tech @ Miami (FL) - slightly more important for Tech’s resume to get the win

(2) Michigan @ (13) Purdue - Boilermakers have played better lately

This is the second time these two teams have played this season. Arizona took the first one behind 29 points from Brayden Burries and 26 points from Jaden Bradley. The Wildcats are coming off of their first two losses of the season as well. BYU shot just 40% as a team in the reverse fixture and will need a better performance if they want to take down Arizona. AJ Dybantsa will look to atone for his 6-24 shooting performance last time he played this team.

Honorable Mentions:

(21) Arkansas @ Alabama - Both teams need this game to challenge Florida for the SEC crown

(19) Vanderbilt @ Missouri - SEC and NCAA tournament seeding implications here

(8) Illinois @ USC - A big-time opportunity for a presumed tournament team in USC

One thing you’ve surely noticed about Fast Breaks & Floor Burns: we love West Coast hoops! The top of the Big West Conference is jam packed with talent - only 1 game separates first place Hawaii (10-4) and fourth place Cal State Northridge (9-5). UC Irvine and UC Santa Barbara fall into second and third, respectively. This will be a fun race to the finish line!

Honorable Mentions:

Cal Baptist @ Utah Tech - winner takes hold of 1st place in the WAC!

Vermont @ UMBC - traditional America East powerhouses both looking up at NJIT in 1st!

This game is a likely preview of the A10 tournament championship matchup. VCU and Saint Louis are in a tier of their own in this league. We have discussed Saint Louis quite a bit this year and what an incredible run the Billikens are on. Don’t sleep on VCU though! The Rams have won nine straight. Terrence Hill Jr. will be an all-conference selection and is a pure scorer averaging nearly 15 ppg. This is the biggest game left on both teams’ schedule so expect a barn burner!

Honorable Mentions:

Green Bay @ Oakland - #3 vs #2 in the Horizon League, both chasing Wright State

Indiana @ (13) Purdue - Purdue won the first meeting between these rivals, can the Hoosiers pull the upset?

What a treat! This matchup comes courtesy of the Big 10 / ACC challenge - we were just talking last week how much we love these mid-season non-conference challenges! I don’t know if we could get a tastier matchup right now, either. Michigan is likely going to be the #1 ranked team in the country when the ball tips, and it won’t be easy to hold onto that ranking after visiting Cameron Indoor! Michigan can definitely hold its own defensively down low, so we’re VERY interested to see how Duke’s Cam Boozer works around the Wolverine posts.

Honorable Mentions: 

Winthrop @ High Point - winner leaves with sole possession of 1st place in the Big South (and likely the conference tourney 1 seed)

(1) Arizona @ (3) Houston - tough challenge for Zona to get back on track

Texas @ Georgia - Texas has to keep stacking wins to stay in

These two teams had drastically different weeks last week. Iowa dropped a stinker at Maryland (77-70) and then returned home to get cooked by Purdue (78-57). Wisconsin had as good of a week as anyone beating (8) Illinois in Champaign and then beating (10) Michigan State by 21 points. These two squads will be anywhere between 6 to 9 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Whoever comes out on top here will nudge closer to a 6 seed.

Honorable Mentions:

Ohio State @ (10) Michigan State - Ohio State looks for their first Q1 win of the season

Saint Peter’s @ Siena - Two of the MAAC’s upper echelon battle for conference tournament seeding

1 Seeds: Michigan, Arizona, Duke, Connecticut

2 Seeds: Houston, Illinois, Iowa State, Purdue

3 Seeds: Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan State, Florida

4 Seeds: Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Virginia

There aren’t too many surprises here and the battle for the top overall seed will be something to monitor over the last month of the season. A case could be made for Houston as a 1 seed, especially if they win the Big 12. There could be some movement between the last couple of 2 Seeds and the first few 3 Seeds as well.

Texas (15-9, 5-6 in Q1 games, 1-2 in Q2 games)

The Longhorns have no bad losses on their resume, but have failed to separate from other bubble teams due to their mediocre performance in Quad 1 and 2 games. They have five Q1 games and two Q2 games left on their schedule. If they get hot, they can safely get in the field.

Santa Clara (21-6, 1-4 in Q1, 5-1 in Q2)

The Broncos missed a big change to get their best win of the year on Saturday versus Gonzaga. They have one Q1 game and one Q2 game left before the WCC Tournament. Getting a Q1 win against Saint Mary’s may nudge them to the right side of the bubble. They need to avoid bad losses, like the one they suffered in December against Loyola Chicago, to stay in touch.

Missouri (17-8, 3-4 in Q1, 3-4 in Q2)

There’s not a single “bad” loss on their schedule this season, but I’m not wowed by any of their wins, either. They beat Florida at home in the middle of the Gators low point this year, and defeated some very volatile opponents in Kentucky and Texas A&M. They’ll get at least five more shots to notch Q1 wins (plus instill some carnage in the SEC tournament) - but I am personally not yet a believer.

San Diego State (17-6, 1-4 in Q1, 5-1 in Q2)

The Aztecs are in an interesting position - they’re probably in today, and they’ll have three more Q1 games to really solidify their argument. SDSU also trails Utah State by a single game in the MW standings, so an auto-bid is not out of the question either. It’s more likely they find a path into the NCAA Tournament than not, but if they fail to capitalize on the upcoming Q1 opportunities, they’ll also risk a worse seed and more difficult route in their conference bracket. They truly need to take this one game at a time.

Ohio State (16-9, 0-8 in Q1, 5-1 in Q2)

FB & FB does not condone teams with an 0-8 record against top teams being in the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, we are not on the selection committee. Ohio State has no bad losses, but their best win is against UCLA, who is just over the bubble themselves. An upcoming three game stretch of Q1 opportunities against Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue will prove pivotal for the Buckeyes.

Virginia Tech (17-9, 3-7 in Q1, 4-1 in Q2)

Virginia Tech has performed stronger against top competition compared to Ohio State. They have Q1 wins over Virginia, Syracuse, and Clemson. However, they suffered a Q3 loss on Saturday at home to Florida State. Four of the Hokies’ last five games are either Q1 or Q2 games but all Q1 games are on the road. They will also have at least one Q1/Q2 game in the ACC tournament and more if they advance.

New Mexico (18-6, 1-4 in Q1, 6-1 in Q2)

The Lobos are 2 games behind Utah State in the Mountain West standings, and just 1 game ahead of teams #4 and #5.  Seeding for the MW conference tournament could be highly impactful to their chances at making a run - and increasing their amount of Q1 victories. They need to start by winning @ Nevada (NET: 58) on Feb 24 to stay comfortable.

Oklahoma State (16-9, 1-6 in Q1, 6-3 in Q2)

It’s all about what can be for the Cowboys, not what has been. I see it too - the resume is frankly lackluster at this point, considering the relative strength of the bubble. But OK State plays five Q1 games (plus another Q2) in their last six! I think they need to win at least 3 of those chances to cement their tournament plea.

California (17-8, 4-5 in Q1, 0-3 in Q2)

Cal’s Q1 record is quite impressive for a bubble team and is headlined with wins over North Carolina and Miami (FL). However, an 0-3 performance against Q2 teams leaves a lot to be desired. They only have one more Q1 opportunity on their schedule as well. The Golden Bears likely need to run the table and win a game or two in the ACC Tournament to secure a spot in The Dance.

TCU (16-9, 5-6 in Q1, 2-1 in Q2)

The Horned Frogs resume would look a lot better if they could just stay out of their own way! They own some of the best wins IN THE NATION (@ Florida, neutral Wisconsin, vs Iowa St), but have some inexplicably bad home losses too (New Orleans, Notre Dame). All six games remaining on their schedule are Q1/Q2 (plus the conference tournament) - so they have abundant chances to lock in a seed.

Seton Hall (17-8, 1-5 in Q1, 4-3 in Q2)

The Pirate’s season is going to be decided in the next three weeks. They don’t necessarily have a bad loss this year, but they’ll probably need to win 2, if not all 3, of their remaining Q1 games to secure positioning especially knowing we’ll have a handful of bid stealers during conference tournament season. It’s a long shot, but not impossible.

This was the best week for Collin’s model in a long time! While the overall record is not amazing, Monday-Friday all finished above .500 this week. Overall performance was dragged down by tough days on Sunday and Saturday. Onto next week!